THE TRADE WAR
Canada — United States — 2025–2026
TRADE WAR INDEX
A branded composite for this site — not an official economic indicator. Built from coverage, rates, affected value, retaliation, duration, and sector breadth.
Site-branded composite index — not an official economic indicator. Recalculated from static inputs for visualization.
MAKE IT YOURS — THEN SHARE IT
This isn't a generic news brief. Build your tariff impact: pick where you live, fill a real shopping basket, and save it in this browser. When the trade war moves, your dashboard updates — and one link lets anyone open the exact same view.
Copy a link with your region + basket baked in. Friends open it and land right here — no account needed. Saved locally for when you come back.
📍 WHERE DO YOU LIVE?
Your province or state shapes which sectors hit hardest. Saved in this browser and included when you share.
Select a region above to see its most exposed sectors.
🛒 YOUR SHOPPING BASKET
Add the goods you actually buy. Quantities and prices stay on this device and travel with your share link.
Note: Estimates use product-specific pass-through rates. Actual prices vary by retailer, supply chain, and competition. This is an educational model.
Done personalizing? Send your impact link so others can see the same numbers for your region and basket.
WHAT DOES A TARIFF ACTUALLY DO?
Pick a product and watch it travel from Canadian producer to U.S. consumer — and see exactly where the tariff hits.
Refrigerator
Appliances
25% counter-tariff on U.S. assembled appliances
⚠ Important: The tariff is legally paid by the U.S. importer, not the Canadian exporter or the foreign government. The economic burden shifts based on market conditions and contract terms.
WHO ACTUALLY PAYS?
Legal incidence (who writes the cheque to customs) is usually the importer. Economic incidence (who ultimately bears the cost) depends on market power and elasticities — and can be shared across the chain.
THE SECTOR BATTLEFIELD
Every major industry in the Canada–U.S. trade relationship. Click any sector to see the supply chain and full impact details.
SUPPLY-CHAIN SPAGHETTI
A car part can cross the border 6–8 times before you drive it home
WHAT CAN CANADA BUY INSTEAD?
Select a U.S. product category and compare alternative suppliers by illustrative price, capacity, distance, and tariff.
Previously sourced heavily from U.S. mills for Canadian construction and autos
| Supplier | Price index | Capacity | Distance | Tariff | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇨🇦Canadian | 102vs US=100 | High | 400 km | 0% | Domestic supply; Hamilton & Sault Ste. Marie |
🇲🇽Mexican | 98vs US=100 | Medium | 3,200 km | 0% | CUSMA-eligible; capacity constraints |
🇪🇺European | 110vs US=100 | High | 6,000 km | 0% | CETA preferential access |
🇯🇵Japanese | 115vs US=100 | Medium | 9,000 km | 0% | CPTPP partner |
🇰🇷South Korean | 108vs US=100 | Medium | 9,500 km | 0% | CKFTA partner |
🇨🇳Chinese | 88vs US=100 | Very high | 10,500 km | 25% | Lower price; dump/AD risk and geopolitics |
Price/capacity/distance are illustrative indices for exploration — not live quotes.
JOBS ON THE LINE
Not a model — this is a factual tally of Canadian workers in sectors directly facing U.S. tariffs, drawn from the sector data above.
Sum of affected-worker estimates across every sector tracked in the Sector Battlefield.
YOU ARE THE PRIME MINISTER
The U.S. has imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. Your cabinet is demanding action. Canadian manufacturers are under severe pressure. The public is watching. What do you do?
THE DATA BEHIND EVERYTHING
Where the numbers come from, how the models work, and what this site is — and isn't — claiming. Page viewed September 4, 2026. Dataset snapshot labeled 2026-09-02.
Primary sources
Methodology
- →Shopping-basket and product-flow prices use product-specific passThroughRate assumptions, not observed scanner data.
- →What-if charts use simplified linear elasticities for teaching; they are labeled as model estimates, not forecasts.
- →The Trade War Index is a site-branded composite of weighted factors (coverage, rates, value, retaliation, duration, sectors) — not an official indicator.
- →Alternative-supplier tables use illustrative price/capacity/distance indices for UX, not live procurement quotes.
Canada publishes detailed tariff-item lists with 8-digit HS codes, descriptions, and rates. A future product explorer could map those schedules line-by-line; this site currently uses sector aggregates for clarity.